By Prof. Madara Ogot
Universities and other education institutions in Kenya were order closed by His Excellency President Uhuru Kenyatta on March 15th, 2020, with a closure deadline of March 20th. This was in response to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the confirmation of the first case in Kenya on March 13, 2020.
Since then, many have universities transitioned to online teaching where possible, with practicals pended until students can be safely brought into the universities. Other universities stopped teaching altogether, essentially remaining frozen in time.
On July 7th, 2020, Prof. George Magoha, Cabinet Secretary for Education, issued guidelines and a tentative time-table for re-opening of educational institutions in Kenya. This was after a consultative process with stakeholders in both the education and health sectors. Some of the minimum opening conditions include:
- Reducing physical contact in learning institutions by having fewer learners, thereby reducing COVID-19 cases and fatalities.
- Social and physical distancing as this has been identified as the most critical factor in ensuring the safety and health of learners .
- Hand washing with soap and/or use of sanitisers, wearing of face masks and monitoring body temperature as minimum requirements for learners in schools.
As the daily COVID-19 cases continue to surge, hitting 8,067 on July 6th, 2020, with the highest daily number of confirmed cases recorded on July 4th at 389, the Government decided to cancel the 2020 Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) and Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) exams. The 2020 school calendar is considered a lost year as a result of COVID-19. Students in primary and secondary schools will therefore lose a full year, and start all over again in January 2021.
What will be the impact of this on Public Universities in Kenya? Are they prepared? This article addresses the two questions through a narrow financial lens.
According to the Economic Survey 2019, there were 513,182 students enrolled in both public and private universities in 2018. Based on university enrolment data from the Commission of University for 2016 and 2017, undergraduate students average 86 per cent of total enrolment (CUE, 2019), yielding approximately 442,000 undergraduates.
For undergraduate students, the following observations can be made. First, a small number of university programmes are five years in duration while the majority are four years. Also, due to a significant number of students dropping out before graduation, the entering first year class in all universities has the largest number of students. The exceptions were in 2017 and 2018 when there was a significant drop in students who qualified to attend University during the national campaign by the Kenya National Examinations Council to root out cheating.
In 2019, 125,746 students attained C+ or higher are eligible to enrol in university this year. But in 2017 and 2018 students who met this minimum qualification were only 70,073 and 90,377, respectively. In those years, universities had more capacity than students qualified to enrol. These years, therefore, are treated as anormalies.
Based on the above analysis and taking into account five year programmes and student dropouts, the number of first year student can reasonably be estimated at about 25 per cent of the undergraduate student body or approximately 110,334 students. This is about 21.5 per cent of the total number of enrolled students,
With no KSCE exam this year, there will be no first year students to enrol into universities in 2021. As a result overall student enrolment could drop by 20-25 per cent of what had been projected. Universities were expecting an larger number of students sitting the 2020 KCSE exam to meet the minimum entry requirement of C+ average, that the 125,476 who met the requirement in 2019. This was projected to result in an even larger incoming first year class in 2021. Although some students transition from tertiary colleges to universities, the numbers may be too few to justify running first year classes in 2021.
What is the financial implication of this “ghost class” on public universities. According to the Commission for University Education, Public Universities’ revenue grew 13 per cent from Kshs. 76.1 Billion in 2013/2014 to Kshs. 85.7 Billion in 2017/2018. In 2017/2018, of which 47 per cent of revenue was from privately sponsored student fees (including a small fraction from research grants), and 53 per cent from the government in the form of grants (CUE, 2019).
A 20-25 per cent reduction in the number of students enrolled in public universities in 2021, therefore would result in a similar reduction in fees from privately sponsored students, and possibly the same for governments grants. The latter are based on the number of undergraduate students enrolled. The grant formula for the amount remitted for each student is based on their differentiated unit cost (DUC). The amount is based on the student’s discipline, with for example, science programmes attracting a higher DUC than programmes in the humanities. These differentials, however, are not important in our case as the entire first year enrolment, encompassing all disciplines, is deferred from 2021 to 2022.
A crude estimate for the average fee revenue per student comes to Kshs. 167,000 per year. This combines both government sponsored (therefore including the government’s grants to universities) or privately sponsored students and is based on 2018 enrollment numbers and public university revenue. Not enrolling an estimated 110,300 students next year could see a conservative revenue drop across public universities of at least Kshs. 18.42 Billion.
The nightmare scenario for public universities, therefore, is a projected massive drop in income starting in 2021/2022. This is occurring when their largest expenditure, staff costs, shall continue to increase based on agreed upon cost of living increments. Further, significant expenditures are expected as universities work towards meeting the COVID-19 regulations and guidelines necessary for re-opening.
All this is against a backdrop of public universities having a combined deficit of Kshs. 3.8 Billion in 2017/2018 (CUE, 2019), a figure that has dramatically shot up since the Government changed the funding formula to be based on DUC. For example, it has been reported that public universities debt to the Kenya Revenue Authority alone, reached Kshs. 19 Billion in June 2020.
Even if the government opts to maintain funding at current levels, despite the drop in the number of students, public universities will still face a 9.4 – 11.8 per cent drop in revenue amid increasing costs, or at least Kshs. 8.2 Billion. The drop in revenue is not for 2020/2021 alone. It will persist for the subsequent four years, as the ‘Ghost Class’ progresses through the universities, “graduating” in 2025.
Although, and rightfully so, the focus of education stakeholders has been on basic education, all stakeholders in the university sector, especially the Treasury, must now urgently come together and objectively look at the issues in the University sector and come up with a workable solution. The Ministry of Education should consider urgently setting up a taskforce to carry out a detailed analysis of the possible scenarios for the next four years, and make implementable recommendations.
Inaction may lead to ALL public universities in Kenya sliding into insolvency and no longer being able to operate.
References
Commission for University Education (2019), University Statistics (2017/2018)
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (2020), Economic Survey 2019.
Prof. Madara Ogot, is the Deputy Vice-Chancellor for Research, Innovation and Enterprise at the University of Nairobi
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of the University of Nairobi.
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