By Dr Jefwa G. Mweri
Introduction
COVID-19 is an international current, emerging and rapidly evolving issue. Current affairs basically revolve around happenings in different fields such as the economy, sports, science and technology, medicine, environment, etc. and they operate at both national and international levels. COVID -19, as a current affair, is the most important of the day-to-day incidents and events around us.
Today, the pandemic has occupied the minds and imagination of the world. There is no part of the globe it has not touched. As an issue that eight months ago, in December 2019, was not influential or important, has been able to gain currency in a short time thus making it influential now and into the future.
COVID -19 is an emerging and rapidly evolving issue in the field of medicine. A matter is regarded an emerging issue when it:
- is beyond any one nation’s ability to solve and whose solution requires cooperation among nations.
- affects a large number of people on different sides of national boundaries.
- is one of significant concern, directly or indirectly, to all or most of the countries of the world, often as evidenced by a major U.N. declaration or the holding of a global conference on the issue.
In other words, for a matter to be considered an emerging issue, it must have
“implications that require a global regulatory approach; no one government has the power or the authority to impose a solution, and market forces alone will not solve the problem.” – Vinay Bhargava (2006)
COVID- 19, therefore, falls under what Wikipedia calls Emerging Issues Analysis (EIA), a term used in futures and strategic planning, to describe the process of identifying and studying issues that have not been influential or important in the past but that might be influential in the future.
COVID- 19 has never been experienced before in the world. Similar or related viruses have been experienced but this particular one is new and baffling even to scientists. The role of EIA is to identify issues that are new and we cannot rely on their history to predict how they will influence the future. If an issue is emerging but there exists historical data that can be used to predict its future then it will fall under trend analysis. For COVID-10 no such data exists that can be extrapolated to the future making it one of the deadliest viruses to deal with currently.
According to Dator (2018), emerging issues are potential problem/opportunities in their earliest stage of development. Trends are potential problem/opportunities that have fully emerged and might develop into mature problem/opportunities. In this article, however, I would prefer to use the term “challenges and opportunities.”
From the above, therefore COVID-19, can be seen to have been an emerging issue in its early stages of development and that was a potential problem and or opportunity. Today, however, it has become a trend since it has fully emerged and has fully developed into a mature challenge though it has also presented several opportunities. Dator (2018) continues to assert that,
“EIA is based on the empirically validated fact that every problem/opportunity (challenge) of the present moves very quickly from an emerging issue to a problem/opportunity.” (Challenge).
In this article I examine the potential challenges and opportunities occasioned by COVID-19 as a trending medical challenge.
Some challenges occasioned by COVID-19 as a trending issue
According to WHO, COVID-19 has impacted health services in many ways. It has for instance severely disrupted prevention and treatment services for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In a survey conducted in 155 countries during a 3-week period in May, it was confirmed that the impact of COVID-19 to the health sector is global, with low-income countries the most affected. For instance, health workers all over the world have had to be reassigned to support COVID-19 activities. There is also the postponement of public screening programmes (for example for breast and cervical cancer), and a the shortage of medicines, diagnostics and other technologies.
COVID-19 has also impacted other diseases such as HIV and AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. According to The Lancet- Global Health (2020), in high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy which could occur during a period of high health system demand.
For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics.
Health effects on the individual mainly emanate from COVID-19, as a respiratory virus, causes breathlessness, fatigue and muscle ache and partial or total loss of the sense of taste and smell in some patients. According to GAVI (2020), it is now clear that the coronavirus does not just attack the respiratory system. Some people have reported gut issues and problems with their kidneys.
Severe COVID-19 patients have experienced what’s called a ‘cytokine storm’ in which the body’s immune system goes into a potentially fatal overdrive and leads to multi-organ failure. Given the multi-organ effect of COVID-19 on the body, survivors may have a variety of long-term effects on their organs, including what some doctors are calling ‘post-COVID lung disease’. Looking at the organs that are affected during infection could give an idea of where the long-term effects on the body are likely to manifest. The greatest impact on health of the individual is death. Currently, over half a million deaths have been recorded worldwide.
Though COVID -19 is a global emerging and trending health issue, its impacts have not been confined to health only. Apart from effects on the heath sector generally and on the individual, COVID-19 effects are wide and varied. According to the UN’s Framework for the Immediate Socio-Economic Response to the COVID-19 Crisis.
“The COVID-19 pandemic is far more than a health crisis: it is affecting societies and economies at their core. While the impact of the pandemic will vary from country to country, it will most likely increase poverty and inequalities at a global scale, making achievement of SDGs even more urgent.”
Thus poverty and inequality are some of the effects of the pandemic. Many countries, the world over, have not been immune to these impacts. According to development initiatives (2020), the labour force has been affected due to job cuts across various sectors, fall of business incomes. A survey conducted by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) in May 2020 (Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 in Kenya), indicates that the labour participation rate in the country has fallen significantly as a result of the pandemic. Data from World Bank shows that in 2019 Kenya had a labour-force participation rate of 75%; this rate fell to just 56.8% in April 2020. According to the KNBS survey, the percentage of the population in active employment, whether informal or formal, has fallen to 65.3% of men and 48.8% of women.
There are also effects on housing. People have been evicted from their homes due to non-payment of rent, People living in poverty are finding it difficult to meet their daily expenses and pay bills, including rent, as a result of job losses, pay cuts or unpaid leave. Kenyans, particularly those relying on casual work, find it difficult to pay rent. According to the KNBS Survey in April 2020, (Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 in Kenya), 30.5% of Kenyans who rented apartments and houses were unable to pay their rent on time. Conversely only 41.7% of tenants paid their rent on time.
The transport sector has also been adversely affected by COVID-19. Lockdowns and a raft of measures introduced by the Government, for instance requiring public service vehicles to carry 50% capacity have disrupted the transport sector. According to the KNBS survey conducted in May 2020, there has been a 51.7% increase in the cost of transport nationally. The increase varies with proximity to the places that have reported a high number of COVID-19 cases and urban centers where there is frequent use of public transport.
Food security is major problem, given that agricultural production has gone down and accessing markets is a problem. These problems are exacerbated for those living in poverty, the aged and the most vulnerable in society. In most areas of the country, particularly in Nairobi and Mombasa which have been hit the hardest by COVID-19, people are concerned about having enough money to buy the food they need due to reduced earnings. According to a recent GeoPoll study, 86% of Kenyans are worried about not having enough to eat.
All in all there is no sector that has been left unscratched by this virus. It has affected sectors such as agriculture, petroleum and oil, education, hospitality, tourism and aviation, manufacturing industry, finance industry, the healthcare and the pharmaceutical industry, real estate and housing sector to name but a few.
Socially, COVID-19 has impacted family dynamics leading to increased cases of domestic violence a lot of home video-gaming due to closure of learning institutions etc.
Opportunities occasioned by COVID-19
Kenyan entrepreneurs found themselves in uncharted waters when the COVID-19 pandemic upended their well-laid plans and pushed them to the edge of bankruptcy due to lost business opportunities. According to Xinhuanet(2020), however, there is a growing number of people who have adopted an entrepreneurial spirit and whose resilience and ingenuity are currently on display as they navigate a treacherous business environment made worse by uncertainties triggered by the COVID-19.
People and organizations have opened up mask-making enterprises to cater for the high demand of masks all over the world. In Kenya, the Export Processing Zones garment factories that produce for the American market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, have had to manufacture masks for sale locally due to the international lockdown and thus inaccessibility of the American market.
In Kenya, where as in many other countries the wearing of masks is mandatory, the Kitui County Textile Centre (Kicotec) and the Eldoret-based Rivatex have not been left behind in masks-mass production. With a population of over 50 million people that present a huge market to satisfy. The sanitizer-making enterprise has also grown due to high demand. According to Nyamweya and Abuga (2020) of the University of Nairobi, with the emergence of Coronavirus, hand sanitizers have gone from being niche product to one of the most widely discussed means by which to control the spread of the virus. On March 18, 2020, the Kenya Bureau of Standards released a list of 36 licensed local manufacturers of hand sanitizers. Previously, production of sanitizers was limited due to hitherto low demand for these products. Universities too through their chemistry departments have not been left behind in the production of hand sanitizers. This is the entrepreneurial spirit and whose resilience and ingenuity are currently on display as pointed out earlier.
Washing hands with soap is also part of the measures put in place to mitigate against COVID-19. Soap and water are the gold standards for hand-washing to reduce the risk of contracting or transmitting coronaviruses (Nyamweya and Abuga, 2020). Entrepreneurial Kenyans have come up with innovations for automatic hands washing machines or step on hand-washing machines that reduce ones risk of contamination. For example, according to the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, Abdikadir Adan who lives in Dolow in Somalia, was motivated by the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic, to design, fabricate and produce a hands-free hand washing equipment which is activated by foot pedals. (https://ec.europa.eu/trustfundforafrica/all-news-and-stories/meet-abdikadir-adan-man-using-simple-innovations-fight-against-covid-19-somalia_en)
Similarly, it is this urgent search for a solution that compelled five research students from the Pan African University (Institute for Basic Sciences, Technology and Innovation (PAUSTI) domiciled at the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) to invent an Automatic Solar Powered Hand Washing Machine. Innovative hand-washing stations have popped up across Africa. (http://www.jkuat.ac.ke/students-compliment-govt-efforts-invent-automatic-solar-powered-hand-washing-machine/)
Given the expected rise in numbers of patients affected by COVID-19, hospital beds are in high demand. This have ignited the innovative nature of Kenyans who have come up with locally made hospital and ICU beds. Thus reducing the necessity of importing such beds. Quality PPEs are also being produced locally thus saving the country some foreign exchange. According to Xinhuanet (2020) Kenyan small business owners, often described as the embodiment of hard work, grit and fortitude, have defied the downturn occasioned by COVID-19 pandemic to stay afloat.
Other areas that have also found a silver lining in the corona era, include the social media through telecommuting, movie platforms such as Showmax and Netflix, e-learning, e-commerce, telemedicine among others. The pharmaceutical industries has benefited due to the high demand for its products world over. The health care systems and its value chain in many countries have been a major beneficiary of this pandemic in one way or another. Most have seen upgrades in terms of its infrastructure to try and cater for the upsurge in the number of those affected by COVID-19.
Conclusion
As the old adage goes, every cloud have a silver lining. Simply put every difficult or sad situation has a comforting or more hopeful aspect, even though this may not be immediately apparent. COVID-19 hangs over the world like a dark cloud that pass overhead and block the sun. However, if you look carefully at the edges of every cloud we can see the sun shining there like a silver lining.
With COVID-19, there are also numerous challenges that it has brought to the world as pointed out above. But it is not all and gloom and doom. From these challenges arises some opportunities that shine like a silver lining.
References
Bhargava, Vinay. (2006). Global Issues for Global Citizens: An Introduction to Key Development Challenges. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Development initiatives (2020)Socioeconomic impacts of Covid-19 in Kenya. Online available: https://devinit.org › resources › socioeconomic-impacts-covid-19-kenya
EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa(2020). Meet Abdikadir Adan, a man using simple innovations in the fight against COVID-19 in Somalia. Online available: https://ec.europa.eu › European Commission › EUTF › All news and stories
GAVI (2020). The long-term health effects of COVID-19. Online available: https://www.gavi.org › vaccineswork › long-term-health-effects-covid-19
Jim Dator (2018), Futures Studies Published as “Futures Studies ,” in William Sims Bainbridge, ed., Leadership in Science and Technology. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Reference Series, 2011, Vol. 1,Chapter Four, pp. 32-40.
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) (2020). Socioeconomic impacts of Covid-19 in Kenya.
Lancet- Global Health (2020. Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.https://www.thelancet.com › journals › langlo › article › fulltext
Nyamweya, N and Abuga K (2020). Hand Sanitizers should be made locally. https://www.uonbi.ac.ke › news › hand-sanitizers-should-be-made-locally
The United Nations (2020). UN’s Framework for the Immediate Socio-Economic Response to the COVID 19 Crisis
WHO (2020). Online available: www.who.int/covid-19/information
Xinhuanet(2020), Feature: Kenyan business owners adopt innovative ways to stay afloat amid COVID-19 disruptions. online available: www.xinhuanet.com › english › africa › 2020-05
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